Israel is considering taking military action against Iran — most likely without U.S. support — in the coming days, even as President Donald Trump is in advanced discussions with Tehran about a diplomatic deal to curtail its nuclear program, according to five people with knowledge of the situation.
Israel has become more serious about a unilateral strike on Iran as the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran appear closer to a preliminary or framework agreement that includes provisions about uranium enrichment that Israel views as unacceptable.
A unilateral strike or action by Israel against Iran would be a dramatic break with the Trump administration, which has argued against such a step.
The renewed threat of an Israeli strike comes as the Trump administration is awaiting a response from Iran on a proposed framework of a nuclear deal, and as the president has publicly said Tehran has become more hardline in its negotiations.
The notion of a new front in a simmering conflict has prompted the Trump administration to order all embassies within striking distance of Iranian missiles, aircraft and other assets (including missions in the Middle East, Northern Africa, and Eastern Europe) to send cables with assessments about danger and about measures to mitigate risks to Americans and U.S. infrastructure, according to two sources familiar.
U.S. and other officials are on alert awaiting the possibility of Israel striking Iran, the officials said.
The White House has not briefed senior lawmakers on the issue, according to that aide and a U.S. official.
One major concern is Iran retaliating against U.S. personnel or assets in the region for any action.
Israel, which relies on intelligence or other direct and logistical assistance from the U.S., may be in a position to take unilateral action against Tehran, the source familiar said. The sources familiar and officials were not aware of any planned U.S. involvement in the possible action. The U.S. could support with aerial re-fueling or intelligence sharing rather than kinetic support but the sources and officials were not aware of plans for that either at this point.
U.S. officials have announced that the voluntary departure of non-essential employees from the region. And the Pentagon announced the voluntary departure of military families from locations all across the U.S. Central Command area of operations.
CENTCOM Commander General Erik Kurilla was due to testify on the Hill on Thursday, but the hearing was postponed late Wednesday without explanation. A source familiar said Kurilla had to focus on this unfolding situation.
Another possible factor: Iran is rebuilding its strategic air defenses, and manned strikes will soon be exponentially more dangerous for Israeli pilots. In October, Israel damaged nearly every one of Iran’s strategic air defense systems (mainly S-300s) but much of the damage was to the radars or other parts that can be rebuilt. It’s possible Israel’s window for manned strikes, without being threatened by Iran’s coordinated strategic air defenses, is closing.
While Israel would most likely prefer U.S. military and intelligence support for strikes — especially against Iranian nuclear facilities — they showed in October that they can do a lot alone.
Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the evacuation of non-essential staff at the U.S. embassy in Iraq will send a message to Tehran that Trump will not necessarily hold Israel back from launching a threatened attack on Iran.
“It’s about trying to get Iran to respect the president’s wishes,” Knights said.
Iran has failed to meet a two-month deadline set by Trump to reach an agreement on the country’s nuclear activities, and the president is frustrated, he said.
Both Knights and a source with knowledge of the matter said it was unclear if Israel would undertake a limited military strike now or wait until nuclear negotiations played out further.
Trump has expressed growing frustration over Iran’s stance at recent indirect talks, portraying Tehran as inflexible and slow moving.
“They’re just asking for things that you can’t do. They don’t want to give up what they have to give up,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “They seek enrichment. We can’t have enrichment.”
