The World Cup will return to North America next year, with the United States, Mexico and Canada sharing host duties for the biggest tournament in global sport.
While the 2025 Club World Cup, to be held across the USA, serves as something of a dress rehearsal for many of the venues for the World Cup, none of the host nations will want to leave anything to chance on the pitch.
So while some players have other commitments, the CONCACAF Gold Cup represents an important milestone for each of the USA, Mexico and Canada.
El Tri will look to defend the crown they won in Los Angeles two years ago and, in the process, become the first 10-time winners of North America’s premier international tournament.
Mauricio Pochettino’s honeymoon period as USA head coach ended with March’s humiliating defeat to Panama in the CONCACAF Nations League, and the former Tottenham and Chelsea coach needs to see progress at this tournament.
Jesse Marsch, meanwhile, has had a positive impact since taking the Canada job and is looking to build on an encouraging fourth-place finish at the 2024 Copa America.
With big-name absences opening up the possibility of an unpredictable tournament, we look ahead to the Gold Cup and deliver the Opta supercomputer’s predictions.
THE CONTENDERS
Mexico
This will be the 19th edition of the Gold Cup since it was rebranded from the CONCACAF Championship in 1991. Mexico have won half of the previous 18, finishing as runners-up twice and never failing to make the last eight.
El Tri have every right to view this as their competition, and their success in the 2024-25 CONCACAF Nations League underlined their status as top dogs in North America.
Raul Jimenez scored a brace to fire them past Panama in the Nations League final three months ago, and he joins AC Milan’s Santiago Gimenez and West Ham’s Edson Alvarez in one of the tournament’s more experienced squads.
Jimenez has enjoyed a renaissance with Fulham, netting 12 Premier League goals in 2024-25 after a return of seven in 2023-24. He only scored 10 in total across his final three seasons with Wolves (2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-33), having suffered a skull fracture in 2020.
At the other end, Mexico have recalled iconic goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, who has won 151 caps and boasts more Gold Cup appearances than any other player (25). Ochoa also holds the record for most titles won at the tournament, lifting the trophy five times in six participations.
Hirving Lozano was also set to return to the fold after a strong start to life in MLS with San Diego FC, for whom he has five goals and five assists. However, a hamstring injury caused the former PSV and Napoli attacker to withdraw from the squad.
Now in his third spell as Mexico’s head coach, Javier Aguirre previously led his country to Gold Cup glory in 2009. His quest for a repeat triumph begins against the Dominican Republic on June 14, with Suriname and Costa Rica their other Group A foes.
Despite two Mexican clubs taking part in the Club World Cup, El Tri have faced far less disruption than their competitors and warrant their status as favourites.
United States
When Pochettino was confirmed as Gregg Berhalter’s successor last September, his arrival was hailed as a major coup for U.S. Soccer.
The USA won five of their first six games under Pochettino, but that momentum came crashing to a halt when defeats to Panama and Mexico saw them finish fourth in the Nations League. Pochettino knows their performances on home soil over the next few weeks must be better, though he will be working with an inexperienced squad.
Christian Pulisic has chosen to skip the competition to rest, while Monaco’s Folarin Balogun has joined Fulham left-back Antonee Robinson on the injury list.
The USA will also be without the Golden Boot winner of the 2023 Gold Cup, with Jesus Ferreira representing the Seattle Sounders at the Club World Cup.
Weston McKennie, Giovanni Reyna, Tim Weah and Yunus Musah are also out. Veteran defender Tim Ream is the only outfielder in their squad with more than 50 caps (69), with none of their forwards possessing more than 16.
Pochettino appeared frustrated when discussing the issue in an interview with Tim Howard and Landon Donovan for Unfiltered Soccer, saying: “People need to prioritise the national team. Lionel Messi, Neymar, [Kylian] Mbappe, we were working with these guys, even Harry Kane… these guys are desperate to go to the national team.”
Those absences do mean plenty of fringe players have a chance to force their way into Pochettino’s World Cup squad.
Brian White is a late bloomer, having scored his first goal for the USA at the age of 28 years and 354 days in January. Only Tai Baribo (13 goals) and Sam Surridge (11) have outscored the Vancouver Whitecaps frontman in MLS this year, with White’s 10 goals coming from 7.5 expected goals (xG).
The only other American in double figures for goals and assists combined in MLS this season is Diego Luna, and the Real Salt Lake star could start in a number 10 role.
The USA will face Trinidad and Tobago, guest participants Saudi Arabia and Haiti in Group D. Should they make the top two, they could face a quarter-final reunion with Panama, who have been a thorn in their side lately.
Twelve months ago, Panama beat Berhalter’s USA side in the second game of their Copa America campaign, a result that ultimately condemned them to a group-stage exit.
Canada
Canada’s only Gold Cup success came back in 2000, and they have only gone as far as the final four on three other occasions (2002, 2007 and 2021).
But they will be optimistic regarding their hopes in 2025, having finished fourth at last year’s Copa America after losing 2-0 to eventual champions Argentina in the semi-finals.
Canada proved they have what it takes to compete with the big boys in that final-four encounter, registering 25 touches in the Argentina penalty area to just 13 by the world champions.
They were also moments away from overcoming Uruguay in the third-place play-off, but Luis Suarez’s 92nd-minute leveller forced a penalty shoot-out that the Celeste won 4-3.
Canada were also competitive in the Nations League, losing 2-0 to Mexico in the semis, then beating the USA 2-1 to finish third, and Marsch has ambitiously declared that nothing less than lifting the Gold Cup will constitute success.
Like the USA, they will be without their poster boy, with Alphonso Davies rupturing his cruciate ligament in March, but Jonathan David will be involved.
David has multiple suitors after the expiration of his contract with Lille, and though some of those are involved in the Club World Cup, the striker will be representing his country.
David – who averages more than a goal every other game for Canada (34 in 63 caps) – scored 87 goals in 178 Ligue 1 appearances for Lille. Since his debut in August 2020, only Mbappe has more goals in the French top-flight (111).
Canada will be big favourites in Group B as they come up against Honduras, El Salvador and Curacao, with their opening game being played on home soil in Vancouver.
OTHER STORIES TO WATCH
The likes of Brazil (in 1996, 1998 and 2003), Colombia (2000 and 2005), South Korea (2002) and Qatar (2021) have previously guested at the Gold Cup, with all making at least the final four.
But no guest nation (or indeed, anyone other than Mexico, the USA or Canada) has ever lifted the trophy, and Saudi Arabia are the latest newbies to try their luck.
The fact that they only reached the last 16 at last year’s Asia Cup, also going down to Oman in the 2024-25 Gulf Cup, does not bode well for their chances.
They will be without Salem Al-Dawsari – the hero of their 2022 World Cup upset of Argentina – due to Al-Hilal’s Club World Cup participation, meaning he will have to wait to bring up his century of caps.
He ended the Saudi Pro League season with 30 goal involvements for Al-Hilal (15 goals, 15 assists), outdoing Al-Nassr’s Cristiano Ronaldo by two and matching Karim Benzema’s haul for Al-Ittihad, and is sure to be a big miss.
Panama are another team to watch. In addition to their two recent victories over the USA, Thomas Christiansen’s men were moments away from taking Mexico to extra time in the Nations League final, only to concede a stoppage-time penalty to Jimenez.
Panama were also runners-up to Mexico at the 2023 Gold Cup – their third silver medal at the tournament.
Captain Anibal Godoy, a 148-cap veteran, has impressed for San Diego this year, ranking third among midfielders for successful passes, with 938.
PREDICTION
The Opta supercomputer has Mexico down as the favourites to lift the trophy, winning it in 30.1% of the pre-tournament simulations. They are also the most likely to reach the quarter-finals (94.6%), the semi-finals (63.0%) and the final (46.5%).
Despite their absentees, the USA are second favourites to win the Gold Cup, and are given a 27.1% chance. They are only marginally behind Mexico throughout the knockout stages, and have a 44.1% chance of reaching the showpiece.
Canada are given a 12.6% chance of ruling North and Central America, and are strong favourites to make it through to the final four, which is when they will look to upset the odds.
Saudi Arabia are given a 9.3% chance of becoming the first non-CONCACAF winners, while Panama (5.3%) and Jamaica (4.8%) are the other outside bets.
