Under normal circumstances, moderating inflation and a weakening labor market would make an easy case for interest rate cuts.
But these aren’t normal times, and a scattering of headwinds on the horizon have made Federal Reserve officials leery of easing monetary policy for fear that the inflation fight isn’t over.
That sentiment is setting up an intensifying conflict between the White House and the central bank that could result in President Donald Trump taking the unusual step of naming a “shadow” chair whose responsibility it would be to watch over the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell until a permanent chief can be installed next year.
There is “fresh buzz” around the idea that Trump could announce his choice to succeed Powell soon, “as a shadow Fed chair in the interim,” until the central bank chief’s term ends, Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore, said in a note Wednesday.
“The idea would be to accelerate the timeframe over which the administration can put its stamp on the Fed and influence rates markets while avoiding the nuclear option of trying to fire Powell,” Guha wrote.
The practicality of such a move is sketchy. There are no imminent vacancies on the Fed’s board of governors — save for Powell, a frequent Trump target whose term as head of the central bank expires in May 2026, though his governorship runs until 2028.
Moreover, the impact of such a “shadow chair” likely would be minimal. It takes seven votes on the Federal Open Market Committee to move policy, and it would be hard to find more than one or two right now who would be in favor of the aggressive interest rate cuts Trump is seeking.
Still, at least telegraphing now who he wants as chair could sent an important message to markets about the path Trump wants to see the Fed to take. The stakes were raised Wednesday following a comparatively benign inflation report showing prices up just 0.1% in May, and after Vice President JD Vance joined Trump in urging the Fed to cut rates.
The stakes for a new chair
The candidate list for chair seems to have been narrowed, and Trump noted Friday that he expects to make his preference public soon. White House officials did not respond to a request for comment Wednesday.
The list of apparent finalists includes former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Governor Christopher Waller, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Each has assets and liabilities, but the most important quality could be a tilt towards sharply lower rates, with an aggressive timetable.
“I think Trump’s going to pick someone who’s going to be uber-dovish,” billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones said during a Bloomberg News interview Wednesday. “We are fiscally constrained. We’re going to have budget deficits of 6% plus [compared to gross domestic product] as far as the eye can see. One of the major offsets if I was the president would be to lower my interest rate costs by appointing a Fed chair who is as dovish as could possibly be.”
Powell has been reluctant to push for cuts until the longer-term effects of Trump’s tariffs can be better gauged.
As Jones sees it, Trump has no other choice than to swing away from the moderate-to-hawkish Powell with the U.S. in a “debt trap” that eventually will cause a market revolt.
The budget deficit is heading toward $2 trillion for 2025 and actually is above 6% of GDP. Costs to finance the $36 trillion debt are estimated at $1.2 trillion this year and likely could be headed north of that as Treasury yields remain lofty. The easiest way for the U.S. to ease some of that burden would be Fed rate cuts that at least would ease some of those financing costs, which are running higher than any other budget category except Social Security and Medicare.
So which way does Trump turn?
Evaluating the candidates
Guha, the Evercore analyst, sees positives and negatives in each prospective candidate.
Warsh, he said, “has direct Fed policy experience, is well-known to markets and Fed officials, and has the benefit of being perceived as being independent while maintaining cordial and constructive relations with the Trump administration.”
His downside: A leaning toward hawkishness on inflation and away from expansionary balance sheet policies that have been the Fed’s hallmark since the financial crisis of 2008.
On Bessent, who emerged this week as a favorite, according to a Bloomberg report, his upside is market bona fides and stature as the “adult in the room” in the organized chaos of the Trump administration. However, a lack of monetary policy experience and perception of being “too close to the Trump administration, and not sufficiently independent,” could work against him perception-wise, Guha said.
More of a longshot, Hassett has solid economic credentials but limited monetary policy experience and might, Guha said, also be perceived as being too close to the administration.
Finally, Waller has the benefit of a folksy demeanor while his recent statements advocating “good news” rate cuts later this year could put him in good standing with Trump. However, he could pay a price for supporting the 50 basis point rate cut last September, ahead of the November presidential election.
For Trump, the challenge will be to pick someone credible who shares his vision on lower rates and easier policy and who can get through a Senate confirmation where Republicans hold the advantage, albeit a fragile one, and leadership that still wants an independent central bank.
“Hopefully, whoever is selected is an individual that feels strongly that monetary policy should be set consistent with the dual mandate and not be politically influenced,” former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said during a CNBC interview Wednesday. “But that remains to be seen.”
